Please find below some thoughts on systematic betting from Hugh G Welsh. As well as his ideas there are systems which he has developed which have provided substantial profits.

The majority of the betting public base their selection of potential winners on the study of the formbook. For a lot of people this would involve no more than a casual glance at a race card in the minutes before a race or a look at their daily newspaper. Others take a closer look at the formbook spending hours daily going through recent results and looking at future declarations in great detail. Whereas the first lot of people have little chance of making a long term profit the second group who invest a lot of time and effort at least have a better chance of succeeding.

An alternative method of selection is system betting. This involves researching past trends to predict future results. Although the research can be time-consuming it has the advantage of the hard work being done before the season begins. This generates a set of strict rules that should be followed throughout the year. It also removes from the equation personal bias. Most of the betting public have certain personal likes/dislikes such as for certain jockeys, trainers, horses and tipsters. This tends to cloud judgement on the outcome of a race. System betting avoids this.

The closest the average member of the betting public comes to system betting is old horse racing sayings such as “always back the outsider in a 3 horse race”. Any time such a horse wins the commentator will happily regurgitate the old saying. This is done without researching the actual data that would reveal that such strategies would soon leave the system follower in financial trouble.

The key to profitable system betting is good research combined with the temperament to stick to the rules of the system by betting all qualifiers. Whereas bookmakers have to bet on all races we don’t. This can mean going long periods without a bet but it is important to show patience and wait for the next qualifier. Unlike in the scenario of the 3-runner race if long-term research has shown that a certain type of horse is likely to win and generate a profit then the system developer should have confidence in the selections that are generated. These selections are based on facts not myths. If some qualifiers start to be left out it usually means that the initial research was not good enough.

Each system should be reviewed at the end of the year to see what the actual outcome has been and to reflect on any changes that will be required for the following year. Constant research and a willingness to change your betting behaviour is required to keep up with the developing trends in horse racing.

There is a lot of debate about whether to use level stakes betting or a staking plan but for me it has to be level stakes throughout the year. I believe that staking plans are ultimately compensating for flaws in the systems being followed. I set aside a bank at the start of the year and I take 10 % of this initial figure and back every qualifier throughout the year to this same level stake. At the end of the year I review my stake for the following year. Losing runs will happen and it is easier to maintain level stakes than a staking plan that can quickly multiply the stake.

Even if you decide not to follow the systems below I hope that they provide you with some useful ideas for the year ahead and that some of the statistics generated also point to some horses to avoid.

Since I started this section on system betting in 2001 the results of the systems have provided good profits which can be seen from the table below.

ACTUAL RESULTS OF ALL SYSTEM BETS SINCE SYSTEMS SITE BEGAN IN 2001

YEAR	WINS	RUNS	% STRIKE RATE	LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (£1 no tax)	% LSP
2001	4	9	44 %	+3.4	+38
2002	12	29	41 %	+7.25	+25
2003	10	25	40 %	+ 5.65	+23
2004	14	37	38 %	-4.35	-12
TOTAL	40	100	40 %	+11.95	+12

2004 Review & Plans For 2005

Although the results since the systems site began show a substantial profit of almost 12 points the results for 2004 were disappointing with a loss being shown for the first time. At the end of each year I review the previous year/years and I decide how I am going to bet in the following year.

The Novice Hurdle System has proved to be spectacularly successful since it was introduced in 2002 giving 14 winners from 24 runners and a level stake profit of £23.50 to a £1 level stake. It is therefore no surprise that I will again follow this system in 2005.

Before 2004 I had been doing a lot of research and testing and I decided to introduce a 2 Year Old System for 2004. This was based on 2-year-old colts running in maiden races that finished second last time out. Although the results were slightly disappointing I have conducted further research and I have modified the system for 2005.

So for 2005 I recommend that that the 2 systems below are followed one based on Novice Hurdles and the other based on 2 year olds. You can also find past results and details of past systems below. If you have any questions or suggestions please get in touch at the above address.

2005 SYSTEMS

1. Novice Hurdles
1. Novice Conditional Hurdles
2. Winner LTO
3. Set to carry 11.08+
4. May-October
5. Up to 30 days since last run
6. 4-6y
7. Evens and greater in the Racing Post

2. Two Year Old Maidens (A)

1. 2Y Maiden Races
2. Colts
3. 2^nd Last Time Out
4. Last SP 15/2 or less
5. April - June
6. Class 3-5 Last Time Out
7. If more than 1 qualifier no bet
8. 10 or more runners last time out

2. Two Year Old Maidens (B)

1.      2Y Maiden Races

2.      Colts

3.      2^nd Last Time Out

4.      Last SP 15/2 or less

5.      April - June

6.      Class 3-5 Last Time Out

7.      If more than 1 qualifier no bet

8.      Forecast SP less than 2/1 in Racing Post

The details of how these systems were generated along with a detailed list of actual bets since the systems site began in 2001 are included below.

1. NOVICE HURDLES

For the 2002 season I introduced the Novice Hurdles System that concentrated on Novice Hurdlers that won last time out and are carrying at least 11.08. The idea for the system came from talks with a fellow systems developer Joe O’Donnell. His system was based on winners in novice hurdle races which were forecast favourite and top rated by both Postmark and Topspeed. After researching his results I saw that a lot of the winners were carrying penalties for winning. My thoughts were that horses which have been penalised for winning are neglected by both the punter and the bookie in the relatively week novice hurdle races which are run during the summer months. My system has proved to be spectacularly successful since 2002 with 14 winners from 24 qualifiers generating a level stake profit of +98 %. I will follow this system closely again in 2005.

Initial Rules
1. Novice Conditional Hurdles
2. Winner LTO
3. Set to carry 11.08+
4. May-October
5. Up to 30 days since last run
6. 4-6y

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
1997	7	18	39%	-1.17	-6.5
1998	10	16	63%	6.97	+44
1999	9	13	69%	6.35	+49
2000	12	15	80%	8.37	+56
2001	10	15	67%	9.28	+62
Total	48	77	62%	29.8	+39

The above results of the initial rules between 1997 & 2001 show a high strike rate and substantial profits but there is an interesting split between those qualifiers which returned at odds on and those at odds against as follows:

Odds	Wins	Runs	% SR	LSP	% LSP
Odds On	30	39	77	+4.642	+12
Odds Against	18	38	47	+25.1	+66

Although some people may be tempted to bet all qualifiers I decided to only bet those qualifiers at odds against in the Racing Post. My rules for this system in 2002 and the rules which I will use in 2005 are as follows:

RULES
1. Novice Conditional Hurdles
2. Winner LTO
3. Set to carry 11.08+
4. May-October
5. Up to 30 days since last run
6. 4-6y
7. Evens and greater in the Racing Post

These rules would give the following results between 1997 & 2004

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
1997	3	11	27%	-0.25	-2.27
1998	5	9	56%	+6.75	+75
1999	3	7	43%	+4.25	+60.7
2000	4	7	57%	+4.75	+67.8
2001	3	4	75%	+9.6	+240
2002	5	7	71%	+10.25	+146
2003	5	9	56	+10.9	+121
2004	4	8	50	+2.35	+29
Total	32	62	52	+48.60	+78

For interest the details of those selections which were odds on in the Racing Post between 2002 and 2004 are as follows:

Year	Wins	Runs	% SR	LSP	% LSP
2002	6	8	75	+0.5	+6
2003	4	7	57	-1.76	-25
2004	6	7	86	+1.11	+16
Total	16	22	73	-0.15	-1

2-YEAR-OLD MAIDENS

This system was new for 2004 and is based on research that I had been doing over the previous few years. The idea behind the system is that 2-year-old colts that ran second last time out and are running in maiden races are under estimated by bookies. In their favour they have been considered good enough not to have been gelded and no other horse in the race will have achieved a better placing.

I researched the following criteria over the period 2002-2003:

1. 2 Year Old Maiden Races
2. Colts
3. 2^nd Last Time Out
4. Last SP 15/2 or less
5. April – October

The results were as follows:

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
2002	42	99	42%	+26.36	+27
2003	43	112	38%	-1.96	-2
Total	85	211	40%	+24.4	+12

Research showed that the months of April, May and June are favoured with 33 wins from 61 runs giving a 54% Strike Rate compared to the results of the other months of 52 wins from 150 runs giving a Strike Rate of 35%. Horses that ran their last race in class F or lower had a shocking record of 1 win from 15 runs. After the above research I decided to limit the system to the months of April, May and June and to those qualifiers that ran in a Class C, D or E race last time out which gave the following results:

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
2002	15	28	54%	+13.67	+49
2003	18	28	64%	+16.35	+58
Total	33	56	59%	+30.02	+54

Due to the fact that some of the qualifiers go off at short prices I decided not to bet in races with double qualifiers. Over the period 2002 – 2003 there were 3 such races with 1 winner from 6 runners. Once these figures have been removed the final results for 2002-2003 are as follows:

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
2002	14	22	64%	+18.23	+83
2003	18	28	64%	+16.35	+58
Total	32	50	64%	+34.58	+69

Final Rules For Two-Year-Old Maidens in 2004

1. 2Y Maiden Races
2. Colts
3. 2^nd last time out
4. Last SP 15/2 or less
5. April - June
6. Class CDE Last *
7. If more than 1 qualifier no bet

*Classification of races changed for 2005 now the equivalent of class 3-5.

The results for 2004 were disappointing with 10 winners from 29 runners and a level stake loss of –6.70 to a £1 stake. On conducting further research into the 2004 results two factors jumped out. The first was adding the proviso that the selection was forecast less than 2/1 in the Racing Post would have given 6 winners from 10 runners and a profit of 0.17. The second is those horses which raced in fields of 10 or more runners last time out would have given 5 winners from 8 runners and a profit of 4.35.These two additional factors confirm that they have beaten a decent field in their previous race. There is a strong correlation between the two different factors with qualifiers often appearing in both lists. For 2005 I propose to follow the 2004 rules as a base and then split it into 2 separate systems by adding the separate variables above. Each system should be treated as separate so if a horse qualifies under both sets of rules it should be bet twice.

Final Rules For Two-Year-Old Maidens 2005 (A)

1.      2Y Maiden Races

2.      Colts

3.      2^nd Last Time Out

4.      Last SP 15/2 or less

5.      April - June

6.      Class 3-5 Last Time Out

7.      If more than 1 qualifier no bet

8.      10 or more runners last time out

Final Rules For Two-Year-Old Maidens 2005 (B)

1. 2Y Maiden Races
2. Colts
3. 2^nd Last Time Out
4. Last SP 15/2 or less
5. April - June
6. Class 3-5 Last Time Out
7. If more than 1 qualifier no bet
8. Forecast SP less than 2/1 in Racing Post

 

Below is a complete list of selections since the systems site began in 2001 along with a variety of tables, which shows the performance of each system by year, and the total performance of all of the systems. 

2001 Results By System 

System	WINS	RUNS	% STRIKE RATE	LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (£1 no tax)	% LSP
Penalty Hurdle	4	9	44	3.4	+38
TOTAL	4	9	44	3.4	+38

 2002 Results By System 

System	WINS	RUNS	% STRIKE RATE	LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (£1 no tax)	% LSP
Penalty Hurdle	4	16	25	-3.3	-20
Novice Hurdle	5	7	71	+10.25	+146
All Weather	3	6	50	+0.3	+5
TOTAL	12	29	41	+7.25	+25

 Results by System 2003 

System	WINS	RUNS	% STRIKE RATE	LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (£1 no tax)	% LSP
Penalty Hurdle	4	14	29	-5.35	-38
Novice Hurdle	5	9	56	+10.9	+121
All Weather	1	2	50	+0.1	+5
TOTAL	10	25	40	+5.65	+23

 Results by System 2004 

System	WINS	RUNS	% STRIKE RATE	LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (£1 no tax)	% LSP
Novice Hurdle	4	8	50	+2.35	+29
2Y Maidens	10	29	34	-6.70	-23
TOTAL	14	37	38	-4.35	-12

 

 2001 – 2004 Results By System 

System	WINS	RUNS	% STRIKE RATE	LEVEL STAKE PROFIT (£1 no tax)	% LSP
Penalty Hurdle	12	39	31	-5.25	-13.5
Novice Hurdle	14	24	58	+23.50	+98
All Weather	4	8	50	+0.4	+5
2Y Maidens	10	29	34	-6.70	-23
TOTAL	40	100	40	+11.95	+12

 Actual Results of all System Bets 2001 – 2004

SYSTEM	DATE	HORSE	SP	RESULT
Penalty Hurdle	09 May 01	Reggie Buck	4	6
Penalty Hurdle	08 Jun 01	Dabarapour	1.1	2
Penalty Hurdle	01 Aug 01	Javelin	1.5	1
Penalty Hurdle	04 Aug 01	Javelin	3.5	1
Penalty Hurdle	05 Sep 01	Intox III	3	1
Penalty Hurdle	14 Sep 01	Intox III	4	F
Penalty Hurdle	10 Oct 01	Present Bleu	0.4	1
Penalty Hurdle	12 Oct 01	Night Fighter	0.57	F
Penalty Hurdle	28 Oct 01	King of the Castle	5.5	8
Penalty Hurdle	06 May 02	Michael's Princess	3.5	2
Penalty Hurdle	09 May 02	Rainbow Dance	0.91	2
Penalty Hurdle	24 May 02	Borehill Joker	6	4
Penalty Hurdle	03 Jun 02	Sharp Belline	2.75	2
Penalty Hurdle	04 Jun 02	Artemesia	3.5	2
Novice Hurdle	21 Jun 02	Forum Chris	5	1
Penalty Hurdle	15 Jul 02	Brooksie	6	1
Novice Hurdle	27 Aug 02	Peejay Hobbs	4	6
Penalty Hurdle	04 Sep 02	Isam Top	12	2
Penalty Hurdle	11 Sep 02	Tiger Grass	1.375	1
Novice Hurdle	25 Sep 02	Ontos	1.75	1
Penalty Hurdle	01 Oct 02	Tiger Grass	2.5	2
Penalty Hurdle	03 Oct 02	Malakal	0.33	2
Penalty Hurdle	09 Oct 02	My Bold Boyo	0.67	1
Penalty Hurdle	09 Oct 02	Il Capitano	0.615	1
Penalty Hurdle	11 Oct 02	Kalinnjar	3	2
Novice Hurdle	16 Oct 02	Latensaani	1.75	1
Penalty Hurdle	17 Oct 02	Pure Fun	1.2	4
Novice Hurdle	18 Oct 02	Grave Doubts	2.25	1
Penalty Hurdle	25 Oct 02	Wend's Day	1.875	2
Novice Hurdle	25 Oct 02	Rutledge Red	1.5	1
Penalty Hurdle	28 Oct 02	Chem's Truce	0.67	2
Novice Hurdle	31 Oct 02	Argento	3	2
All Weather	07 Dec 02	Cash	4.5	6
All Weather	13 De 02	Bobby Kennard	1.75	4
All Weather	16 Dec 02	Fast Track	0.8	1
All Weather	16 Dec 02	Reminiscent	3	4
All Weather	20 Dec 02	Fast Track	0.5	1
All Weather	27 Dec 02	Flying Treaty	2	1
Novice Hurdle	09 May 03	Perouse	2	9
Penalty Hurdle	15 May 03	Irish Distinction	2	1
Penalty Hurdle	26 May 03	Court Champagne	3.5	P
Penalty Hurdle	06 Jun 03	Accepting	2.75	5
Novice Hurdle	14 Jun 03	Maiden Voyage	1	1
Novice Hurdle	21 Jun 03	Marrel	5	1
Penalty Hurdle	27 Jun 03	Intox III	6.5	3
Penalty Hurdle	27 Jun 03	Italian Counsel	6	6
Novice Hurdle	28 Jun 03	Champagne Harry	3	2
Novice Hurdle	06 Jul 03	Jollyolly	3	1
Penalty Hurdle	17 Jul 03	Breathtaking View	2.75	5
Penalty Hurdle	22 Jul 03	Sovereign State	5	3
Novice Hurdle	12 Aug 03	Xellance	0.91	1
Penalty Hurdle	23 Aug 03	Lord Of The Track	2.75	U
Penalty Hurdle	14 Sep 03	Parsons Pride	5.5	5
Novice Hurdle	25 Sep 03	Second Paige	5	1
Novice Hurdle	05 Oct 03	Jonalton	3.5	3
Penalty Hurdle	10 Oct 03	Cush Jewel	4	3
Novice Hurdle	14 Oct 03	Prize Ring	6.5	7
Penalty Hurdle	15 Oct 03	Red Sun	0.83	1
Penalty Hurdle	15 Oct 03	Bolton Barrie	1.2	1
Penalty Hurdle	16 Oct 03	Around Before	0.615	1
Penalty Hurdle	24 Oct 03	Wild Power	3.33	6
All Weather	13 Dec 03	Majik	3.33	3
All Weather	19 Dec 03	Blofeld	1.1	1
2 Y Maidens	14 Apr 04	Dance Night	1	1
2 Y Maidens	24 Apr 04	Goodricke	0.2	1
2 Y Maidens	29 Apr 04	Speed Dial Harry	1.75	3
2 Y Maidens	03 May 04	Turnkey	2.5	1
2 Y Maidens	08 May 04	Langston Boy	1.5	3
2 Y Maidens	14 May 04	Exit Smiling	0.67	3
2 Y Maidens	15 May 04	Iceman	2.5	1
2 Y Maidens	15 May 04	Extra Mark	2	2
2 Y Maidens	16 May 04	Distinctly Game	1	2
2 Y Maidens	18 May 04	Asian Tiger	1	2
2 Y Maidens	18 May 04	Chiselled	3.3	2
2 Y Maidens	19 May 04	Chalison	2.5	3
2 Y Maidens	29 May 04	Crimson Sun	0.72	1
2 Y Maidens	31 May 04	Empire Ghoda	6	3
2 Y Maidens	03 Jun 04	Shaheer	5	12
2 Y Maidens	03 Jun 04	Spirit of France	3.5	2
2 Y Maidens	04 Jun 04	Qadar	0.5	3
2 Y Maidens	05 Jun 04	Hanseatic League	1	2
2 Y Maidens	05 Jun 04	Space Shuttle	1.38	1
2 Y Maidens	06 Jun 04	Silver Wraith	0.62	1
2 Y Maidens	07 Jun 04	Come Good	3	6
Novice Hurdle	09 Jun 04	Everready	0.8	F
2 Y Maidens	11 Jun 04	Distinctly Game	1.75	1
2 Y Maidens	11 Jun 04	Drum Dance	1.75	2
2 Y Maidens	11 Jun 04	Weet Yer tern	2.5	4
2 Y Maidens	17 Jun 04	Spirit of France	0.8	1
2 Y Maidens	17 Jun 04	Mac Cois Na Tine	5.5	3
2 Y Maidens	19 Jun 04	Fox	0.83	1
Novice Hurdle	23 Jun 04	Tulipa	2	1
2 Y Maidens	27 Jun 04	Mceldowney	3.5	2
2 Y Maidens	30 Jun 04	Forzeen	1.38	3
Novice Hurdle	04 Jul 04	Selvas	2	1
Novice Hurdle	15 Jul 04	Stage By Stage	1.1	1
Novice Hurdle	15 Aug 04	Al Royal	4	P
Novice Hurdle	31 Aug 04	Harbour Bound	2.5	3
Novice Hurdle	12 Sep 04	Freedom Now	1.25	1
Novice Hurdle	28 Sep 04	Dominican Monk	2	2

 

Previous Systems

 

 1. DECEMBER ALL WEATHER SYSTEM USED 2002-2003

For the 2002 season I introduced a system for All Weather racing. I researched the following criteria between December 2001 & March 2002:

1. Southwell & Wolverhampton
2. 1st Last Time Out
3. All Weather Handicaps
4. Racing within 7 days

This criteria produced 26 winners from 72 runners at a strike rate of 36 %. Fillies had a poor record winning only 4 times from 19 runs. December was the most successful month with 9 wins from 21 runs which improved to 8 wins from 14 runs and a strike rate of 57 % if fillies are left out.

When researching the results of previous years it became clear that those horses which recorded winning distances of more than 1 length and returned at an SP of 10/1 or less had the best strike rate. Therefore my system for the 2002 and 2003 All Weather seasons was as follows:

RULES

1. December
2. Southwell & Wolverhampton
3. 1st last time out
4. All Weather handicaps this run
5. Up to and including 7 days since a run
6. Not fillies or mares
7. Winning distance of over 1 length
8. Last SP of 10/1 or less

From the period between 1998 to 2003 the results were as follows:

Year	Wins	Runs	% Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
1998	0	0	-	-	-
1999	0	2	0	-2	-100
2000	5	7	71	+ 9.48	+ 135
2001	8	9	89	+ 27	+ 300
2002	3	6	50	+0.3	+5
2003	1	2	50	+0.1	+5
Total	17	26	65	+34.88	+134

 

Between 2002 and 2003 the All Weather system showed a small profit each year with 4 wins from 8 selections and a level stake profit of £0.40 to a £1 level stake. The All Weather racing scene was changing rapidly with tracks changing their surface and other tracks planning to open. In light of these changes and the uncertainty they will bring it was decided not to follow this system.

2. PENALTY HURDLES USED 2001 - 2003
This was the system that first started this section in 2001. The thinking behind the system is that winners that are penalised are often underestimated on their next run. Often punters like to make excuses for horses that have been beaten and ignore those that have shown the courage to win. If a horse is fit and is a proven winner then it has a good chance of repeating its success.

RULES
1. Penalty winners running in handicaps over hurdles.
2. May - October
3. Age 5 - 7
4. Distance not 20 to less than 24 furlongs
5. Class DEF

Below is a list of the results of the system between 1997 and 2003:

Year	Wins	Runs	Strike Rate	LSP (£1 no tax)	% LSP
1997	4	9	44%	+2.6	+29
1998	6	11	55%	+8.738	+79
1999	5	6	83%	+9.416	+157
2000	12	23	52%	+40.644	+177
2001	4	9	44%	+3.4	+38
2002	4	16	25%	-3.3	-21
2003	4	14	29%	-5.35	-38
Total	39	88	44%	+58.148	+66

Although the system produced a good profit in 2001 a loss was shown in the period 2002-2003. It was therefore decided not to follow this system.

E-mail Hugh

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